The midterm elections may be in November, but they are already looming large over Capitol Hill.
Control of Congress will likely hinge on a small number of races in a few key states.
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One of the most consequential races for control of the U.S. Senate will take place in Maine.
A new Fox News poll shows Republican Sen. Susan Collins holding a narrow lead over Democratic challenger Graham Platner in Maine’s closely watched U.S. Senate race.
The poll also highlighted continued Democratic competitiveness in one of the nation’s top battleground contests.
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According to the survey, Collins leads Platner 50% to 47% among registered Maine voters, underscoring the tight margin in a race that is expected to play a key role in determining control of the Senate after the midterm elections.
One of the poll’s most notable findings involves voters who describe themselves as “extremely” motivated to vote.
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Among that group, which represents roughly two-thirds of registered voters surveyed, Platner leads Collins by a margin of 53% to 44%.
Voter enthusiasm has historically played a significant role in midterm elections, making turnout among highly motivated voters a closely watched indicator as both parties intensify their campaigns ahead of November.
While voter enthusiasm can fluctuate over the course of an election cycle, the survey suggests Democrats may have an opportunity if they maintain that level of engagement and successfully turn motivated supporters into voters on Election Day.
The survey also found that voters expressed different concerns about the two candidates.
According to the poll, 38% of respondents said they were extremely concerned about Platner’s judgment if elected to the U.S. Senate, while 31% said they were extremely concerned that Collins has served in office for too long.
2026 Maine Senate Race Polling Averages
🔴 Susan Collins (inc): 47.8% (+6.1)
🔵 Graham Platner: 46.8% (-3.1)(+/- vs May 25)
Decision Desk | 7/2 pic.twitter.com/68Ys8hT5hN
— OSZ (@OpenSourceZone) July 2, 2026
The findings suggest both candidates face potential vulnerabilities as the campaign enters its final months, with questions about experience and tenure likely to remain central themes through Election Day.
Republican pollster Daron Shaw, who conducted the Fox News Poll alongside Democrat Chris Anderson, said of the survey: “Along with North Carolina, Maine is the Democrats’ most obvious Senate target — a blue state with a restless electorate and a 30-year establishment Republican incumbent.
“How do you blow that? Maybe by nominating someone facing allegations of racism and dishonesty. This race could demonstrate whether partisan and populist loyalties trump all else,” Shaw said, per Newsweek.
Platner has recently come under increased scrutiny following allegations made by former romantic partners that were previously reported by The New York Times.
One former girlfriend, Lyndsey Fifield, alleged that Platner engaged in physically threatening behavior during their relationship more than a decade ago.
The allegations have prompted renewed attention to the Democratic candidate’s personal history.
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Platner has also faced criticism over a skull-and-crossbones tattoo that resembles the Nazi-era Totenkopf symbol.
He said he got the tattoo years ago while traveling in Croatia, claiming he didn’t know of its historical association with Nazi Germany, and has since had it covered.
The Fox News poll also found a gender divide in the race.
Among male voters, Collins leads Platner 53% to 43%, while female voters favor Platner by a margin of 51% to 46%.
“That poll strikes me as about right. Remember that I predicted that if Platner advanced, Collins would win a close race,” Grant Davis Reeher, professor of political science at Syracuse University, told Newsweek.
“I think that motivation gap will shift more in her favor the longer the Platner baggage sits with the general electorate,” he continued.
“He would have problems anywhere, but those problems are particularly not ‘Maine-like,’ despite the state’s shift to the Left,” he added.
“There is still a distinctive Maine culture that he no longer embodies. Most of the current extremely motivated voters are viewing this choice as ‘anything is acceptable if it works against Trump and his Senate supporters,’” Reeher said.
“But I think as the election nears, the rest of Maine will become more motivated to keep Platner from representing the state in the Senate. I think they would view it as an embarrassment, if nothing else,” he concluded.
This article may contain commentary which reflects the author’s opinion.
