There is a potential massive upset brewing in the state of Oregon, which has long been a blue stronghold despite vast pockets of conservatism.
The Republican gubernatorial candidate there got some unexpectedly good news this week in the form of polling against incumbent left-wing Democratic Gov. Tina Kotek.
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Republican State Sen. Christine Drazan is polling four points ahead of Kotek, according to a new poll from the research firm Public Opinion Strategies.
On Thursday, Drazan toured manufacturing facilities in Eugene and Springfield and discussed her thoughts on public education requirements.
“We took away our requirements for graduation some years ago,” Drazan said, according to local reports.
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“It’s time to restore graduation requirements and know that our students are going to be prepared for community college, or the trades, or college, whatever they want in their future, that our public education is going to help them get there,” she continued.
“Today, we found that that has not been the case. We need to ensure that by attending a public school, you’re not going to be left behind,” she added.
Drazan also discussed her lead in the polls.
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“This isn’t about what color jersey you wear,” Drazan said. “This is certainly not about personality contests or anything like that. This place that we live in is extraordinary.
“We shouldn’t be losing people to Texas or Nevada or Arizona or Tennessee or anywhere else,” Drazan continued.
“People should want to live here because it’s the best place to live,” she added.
“And so we just have to work on solving these problems differently. We need a new vision and a new direction for our state.”
The last Republican to hold the governorship in Oregon was Vic Atiyeh, who served from 1979 to 1987.
Also, last month, the Cook Political Report changed the Oregon governor’s race from Solid Democrat (the highest possible Democrat rating) to Likely Democrat.
The change was made on July 10, well before Public Opinion Strategies poll was released, meaning that the shift to Drazan has likely been occurring for weeks.
“Oregon’s gubernatorial races have become something of a nagging headache for Democrats, in part because the policies that play well with Portland progressives are poisonous elsewhere in the state,” the report stated in its race summary.
The Cook Political Report shifted its rating for Oregon’s 5th Congressional District on July 16 from Likely Democratic to Solid Democratic, signaling stronger prospects for incumbent Rep. Janelle Bynum, D-Ore., in her race against Republican Deschutes County Commissioner Patti Adair.
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Sen. Christine Drazan released her first TV ad in her rematch against Gov. Tina Kotek on Aug. 6, hours after Kotek launched an ad against her. https://t.co/VBT8X80X1l
— The Register-Guard (@registerguard) August 7, 2026
🚨THIS IS NOT A JOKE: Republican Christine Drazan leads incumbent Governor Tina Kotek in “solid blue” Oregon.
Oregon – 2026 Governor
🟥Christine Drazan 48% (+4)
🟦Tina Kotek* 44%Kotek defeated Drazan by merely 3% in 2022 and polling shows this 2026 rematch will be just as… pic.twitter.com/7kvNpUhwmx
— Election Time (@ElectionTime_) July 9, 2026
Oregon’s 5th District had been considered one of the state’s most competitive congressional seats following redistricting.
Former Republican Rep. Lori Chavez-DeRemer defeated Democrat Jamie McLeod-Skinner by 2.1 percentage points in 2022, while Bynum unseated Chavez-DeRemer by 2.7 points in 2024.
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Cook Political Report continues to rate Oregon’s U.S. Senate race as Solid Democratic, with incumbent Sen. Jeff Merkley facing Republican David Brock Smith.
The race in Oregon’s 2nd Congressional District, which encompasses most of central and eastern Oregon, also remains unchanged.
Cook rates the seat as Solid Republican, with incumbent Rep. Cliff Bentz, R-Ore., running against Democrat Chris Beck.
Neither the Senate race nor the 2nd Congressional District has seen a rating change since at least February.
Meanwhile, President Donald Trump’s endorsed slate powered through Tennessee’s Republican primaries Tuesday, delivering decisive wins that underscored the president’s enduring grip on the GOP.
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The primary wins also position conservatives for a strong push to reclaim the governor’s mansion and hold key congressional seats in the November midterms.
Tennessee Sen. Bill Hagerty secured an uncontested victory in the Republican primary for U.S. Senate on Thursday night, advancing effortlessly to the November general election as a steadfast champion of conservative values and President Trump’s agenda.
With no challengers on the ballot, Hagerty, the incumbent first elected in 2020, was declared the nominee shortly after polls closed at 7 p.m. Central Time.
This article may contain commentary which reflects the author’s opinion.
