Democrats are using what levers of power and influence they have, even as the national party is heavily in debt, to flip enough House seats in the fall midterms to retake control of the chamber.
One of the seats Democrats hoped to flip is in the red state of Florida, but new polling shows the party’s hopes are more of a pipe dream.
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MAGA favorite Rep. Anna Paulina Luna holds an 8-point advantage over her likely Democratic challenger, Leela Gray, according to new internal polling released this week by Fabrizio, Lee & Associates.
The survey found that 49% of respondents said they would support Luna if the election for Florida’s 13th Congressional District were held today, compared with 41% who said they would vote for Gray.
Luna’s lead widened when voters were asked whether they were certain to support their preferred candidate. In that category, 43% said they would definitely vote for Luna, while 34% said they would definitely back Gray, giving the incumbent a 9-point advantage.
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Political analysts often view voter-certainty measurements as a stronger indicator of electoral support than a standard ballot test because they attempt to distinguish committed voters from those who remain open to changing their minds, Florida Politics reported.
The poll also found that just 10% of respondents remained undecided, suggesting there may be limited room for either candidate to significantly expand support before Election Day.
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Luna was first elected to represent Florida’s 13th Congressional District in 2022.
She is now seeking her second re-election victory.
Democrats are hoping to capitalize on a political environment that has historically favored the party out of power during midterm elections.
But Gray faces an uphill battle in Florida’s 13th Congressional District following changes made during mid-decade redistricting, the outlet reported.
🚨 JUST NOW: Trump-endorsed Rep. Anna Paulina Luna just said she might win her race in FL-13 by DOUBLE DIGITS
“I’m projected to win by potentially 11 points!”
“We’re anticipating Democrats will be targeting our new seats…I think the American people will be in for a surprise,… pic.twitter.com/AqQE3HQbhW
— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) August 15, 2026
The revised congressional map removed southern Pinellas County from the district, including heavily Democratic areas in St. Petersburg.
The new boundaries also added some Democratic voters who had previously been part of Florida’s 14th Congressional District.
Even before the redistricting changes, Luna won re-election in 2024 by nearly 10 percentage points against a Democratic challenger who, like Gray, received significant support from national Democratic organizations.
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The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has identified Luna’s seat as one of its key targets in its effort to regain control of the House in 2026, Florida Politics noted further.
Florida’s 13th Congressional District is one of four Florida seats included in the committee’s strategy, alongside districts currently represented by Reps. Cory Mills and Gus Bilirakis, as well as the open race in Florida’s 16th Congressional District.
The latest internal poll showing Luna with an 8-point advantage over Gray contrasts with an earlier survey conducted by GQR, which found the Republican incumbent leading by a narrower 47% to 44% margin, said the outlet.
Gray must first secure her party’s nomination in Tuesday’s primary election, however, where she faces two other Democratic candidates.
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She enters the contest as the clear front-runner, having raised more than $1.2 million during the campaign. Financial disclosures show that she still has roughly $683,000 in cash on hand, far outpacing the other Democratic candidates in the race, notes Florida Politics.
Gray has also assembled a broad network of support from prominent Democratic leaders.
Her endorsements include former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg, Sen. Mark Kelly and Reps. Kathy Castor, Lois Frankel, Jason Crow, Pat Ryan and Ted Lieu.
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She has also received backing from former Rep. Jim Davis, former state Rep. Ben Diamond and former Florida Chief Financial Officer Alex Sink.
Several influential organizations have also endorsed Gray, including EMILY’s List, VoteVets, the Florida AFL-CIO and the West Central Florida Labor Council.
For her part, Luna has been a big supporter of the SAVE America Act, which would place nationwide mandates on federal elections including having to show a voter ID and proof of citizenship.
This article may contain commentary which reflects the author’s opinion.
