One of the most closely watched governor’s races of the 2026 midterm elections is officially set after Florida voters delivered decisive victories Tuesday night.
The November matchup will feature two former members of Congress with dramatically different political journeys as Republicans attempt to continue their lengthy control of the governor’s mansion.
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Republican Rep. Byron Donalds easily won his party’s primary Tuesday and will face Democratic nominee David Jolly, a former Republican congressman, in the November 3 general election to replace term-limited Gov. Ron DeSantis.
Donalds, who received President Donald Trump’s endorsement, had approximately 49% of the Republican primary vote when the race was called by the Associated Press at 8 p.m. ET.
Florida Lt. Gov. Jay Collins finished a distant second with approximately 24.7%, while investment firm founder James Fishback received about 10.1% despite attracting considerable attention during his campaign.
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Jolly simultaneously secured the Democratic nomination with nearly 62% of the vote when his race was called.
The matchup represents a remarkable political evolution for Jolly, who served in Congress as a Republican from 2014 until 2017 before becoming an independent and eventually joining the Democratic Party.
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Jolly’s break with the GOP was driven substantially by his opposition to Trump, which dates to Trump’s first presidential campaign in 2015.
“If the election were tonight, we would win the general election in Florida as a Democratic candidate,” Jolly told CNN before Tuesday’s results were called.
Jolly argued that while he considers himself a strong candidate, “the cycle is presenting an opportunity where voters are just screaming for change.”
Democratic National Committee Chairman Ken Martin celebrated Jolly’s victory and portrayed him as a candidate capable of competing statewide.
“David has demonstrated a commitment to putting people over politics and is fighting tirelessly for Florida families,” Martin said.
“Floridians have chosen a leader with the experience, independence, and vision to lower costs, strengthen the state’s economy, protect fundamental freedoms, and deliver for Florida,” Martin added.
But Jolly will attempt to accomplish something Florida Democrats have failed to do for more than a quarter-century: win the governor’s mansion.
Florida has moved substantially toward Republicans during recent election cycles, with Trump carrying the state by approximately 13 percentage points in 2024 and DeSantis winning reelection by nearly 20 points in 2022.
Republicans also hold a sizable voter-registration advantage in the state, giving Donalds favorable political fundamentals heading into November.
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Recent polling nevertheless suggests the contest could be closer than those previous statewide margins.
A University of North Florida survey conducted in July showed Donalds leading Jolly 46% to 41%, with 6% undecided and another 5% supporting someone else.
Among voters unaffiliated with either major party, the same poll showed an especially narrow divide, with Donalds at 39% and Jolly at 38%.
Other surveys have shown Donalds with somewhat larger advantages.
A Targoz Market Research survey conducted for the James Madison Institute showed Donalds leading 45% to 38%, while 17% of respondents were either undecided or selected another option.
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A Stetson University Center for Public Opinion Research survey also showed a seven-point Donalds advantage, 47% to 40%.
Political science professor Craig Agranoff told Newsweek before the primary that Florida’s recent electoral history gives Republicans significant structural advantages but cautioned against treating November as predetermined.
“Right now the fundamentals favor Republicans holding the seat, but a closer race than expected is possible if independents swing hard or if economic concerns dominate,” Agranoff said.
“It is not locked up yet, but the baseline favors the GOP,” he added.
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Prediction markets have been substantially more skeptical of Democrats’ chances than public polling, with Kalshi and Polymarket pricing a Republican victory above 80% Tuesday night.
The Cook Political Report has also categorized the contest as a Solid Republican pickup, Newsweek reported.
Donalds enters the general election with Trump’s endorsement, an established national profile and the considerable advantage of running in a state that has moved sharply toward Republicans.
This article may contain commentary which reflects the author’s opinion.
