Republican candidates in key races that will determine whether the party retains control of the U.S. Senate have pulled ahead of their Democratic opponents just days before the November 3 midterms.
New polling shows GOP candidates taking narrow leads in Texas, Kansas, Iowa, and at least one recent survey in Ohio and Michigan each.
The latest numbers underscore how small polling shifts could determine control of a chamber Republicans currently hold 53-47.
One of the most significant developments came in Texas, where an InsiderAdvantage survey conducted October 13-14 found Republican Ken Paxton leading Democrat James Talarico 49% to 48% among 1,200 likely voters, with a 2.8-point margin of error.
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The result marked a notable change from a series of recent Texas surveys showing Talarico ahead, including polls from Marist, Siena, YouGov and the University of Texas, although the RealClearPolitics average still has Talarico ahead 48.5% to 46.3%.
A CBS News survey fielded through October 16 subsequently found Talarico ahead 51% to 49%, reinforcing that the Texas contest remains extremely close and that individual polls are producing different leaders.
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Republicans received another encouraging result in Kansas, where the latest InsiderAdvantage survey showed incumbent Republican Sen. Roger Marshall ahead of Democrat Adam Hamilton 48% to 47%.
That one-point advantage was enough to put Marshall narrowly ahead in the RealClearPolitics polling average, 46% to 45.7%, after earlier surveys had alternated between Marshall and Hamilton.
Kansas has not elected a Democratic senator in more than nine decades, making the competitiveness of the race one of the more surprising developments of the 2026 campaign.
President Donald Trump traveled to Kansas on Monday to campaign for Marshall as Republicans work to shore up support in a state Trump carried by roughly 16 percentage points in 2024.
In Michigan, The Tyson Group polling firm “finds Mike Rogers pulled slightly ahead in Michigan’s U.S. Senate race,” according to a press release. The poll was conducted Oct. 6-8 and involved 600 people.
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“In our latest survey, Republican Mike Rogers leads Democrat Abdul El-Sayed 46%-44%. Rogers gained three
points since our previous statewide Michigan survey, which was fielded September 24-27,” said the release.
Iowa is also producing fresh evidence of Republican strength, with multiple recent surveys showing GOP Rep. Ashley Hinson narrowly ahead of Democrat Josh Turek in the contest for the seat being vacated by retiring Republican Sen. Joni Ernst.
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A co/efficient poll conducted October 19 found Hinson leading Turek 48% to 45%, while a Trafalgar Group survey conducted October 13-15 put Hinson ahead 45.9% to 44.2%.
An Emerson College survey earlier in October similarly showed Hinson leading 47% to 45%, while CNN polling had her ahead 45% to 43%, though Marist and YouGov have produced recent results showing Turek narrowly ahead.
The mixed Iowa polling demonstrates the volatility of the contest, but the newest co/efficient and Trafalgar surveys both place the Republican candidate in front after Democrats had pointed to earlier polls as evidence they could flip the seat.
Republicans have also received encouraging numbers in Ohio, where Rasmussen Reports recently found incumbent GOP Sen. Jon Husted leading former Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown 49% to 47%.
A separate ActiVote survey released October 18 showed an even narrower Husted advantage of 50.2% to 49.8%, while co/efficient previously put the Republican ahead by one point.
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Other Ohio polling remains more favorable to Brown, however, including a new Marist survey released Tuesday showing the Democrat ahead by four points, and the RealClearPolitics average currently has Brown leading 47.4% to 44.6%.
Maine remains another closely watched battleground, although the latest polling does not show Republican Sen. Susan Collins taking the lead, with InsiderAdvantage, Suffolk University and Rasmussen each recently finding Democrat Troy Jackson ahead 49% to 47%.
The RealClearPolitics average has Jackson ahead by only 1.6 points, while an earlier co/efficient survey showed Collins leading by two, leaving the veteran Republican within striking distance in a state where she has previously outperformed pre-election polling.
Fox News anchor Bret Baier highlighted that uncertainty Sunday, noting that Republicans could finish with a 52-48 Senate majority if GOP candidates outperform current polling averages by margins comparable to polling misses seen in previous elections.
This article may contain commentary which reflects the author’s opinion.
