By Yue Stella Yu, CalMattersThis story was originally published by CalMatters. Sign up for their newsletters.
It’s official: Eight Democrats and two Republicans say they have filed paperwork for the June 2 primary ballot in the California governor’s race, setting up a wide-open contest in which two Republicans who have consistently led in polls could shut out all other Democrats.
Here are the 10 candidates:
Xavier Becerra, Democrat, former U.S. Health and Human Services secretary and former California Attorney General
Chad Bianco, Republican, Riverside County Sheriff
Steve Hilton, Republican, Fox News contributor and former adviser to conservative British prime minister David Cameron
Matt Mahan, Democrat, mayor of San Jose
Katie Porter, Democrat, former U.S. representative representing Orange County
Tom Steyer, Democrat, billionaire entrepreneur and former presidential candidate
Eric Swalwell, Democrat, U.S. representative from the Bay Area
Tony Thurmond, Democrat, state superintendent of public instruction
Antonio Villaraigosa, Democrat, former mayor of Los Angeles and former Assembly Speaker
Betty Yee, Democrat, former state Controller
Steyer became the last to officially file on Friday, the deadline for submitting candidacy paperwork.
Former Assembly Majority Leader Ian Calderon exited the race earlier this week, endorsing Swalwell instead.
What’s next?
The secretary of state’s office says it will verify the paperwork their campaigns submitted and publish an official list of primary candidates by March 21.
The top two vote recipients in the primary, regardless of party, will advance to the general election. But the two Republican frontrunners enjoy more consolidated support from their base than their Democratic counterparts, who risk fragmenting the Democratic vote. At the February state Democratic Party convention, delegates were so split that no candidate earned enough votes for the party endorsement.
With the current field, there’s a 27% chance of a Republican faceoff in November, according to statistical modeling by Democratic strategist Paul Mitchell.
The prospect is worrisome for many Democratic leaders, including state party leader Rusty Hicks, who earlier this week penned an open letter calling for those without a “viable path” to victory to drop out before the Friday deadline to file paperwork. And for those who remained, he pleaded, drop out by April 15 at the very latest if they couldn’t make “meaningful progress.”
The call appeared to fall on deaf ears, as eight of the nine announced Democratic candidates stayed in. Even if someone drops out now, their name will still appear on the primary ballot as long as they qualify, risking siphoning votes away from other Democrats.
Discounting the risk
When asked about the risk of a November shutout at a Thursday gubernatorial forum, several Democratic candidates brushed it aside while insisting they each would be voters’ best choice.
Villaraigosa told CalMatters the GOP base will coalesce behind just one candidate when President Donald Trump makes an endorsement.
“When that happens, that person is going to surge up and the other (Republican is) going to go down, it’s as simple as that,” he said.
Of the Democratic attendees at the forum, only Porter acknowledged the risk of a crowded field of Democrats.
“I think it is terrifying to think about what Trump would do to Californians if we had a governor who at every turn cooperated with him rather than stood up for our California values,” she said. “So I don’t think it’s a certainty, but I do think it’s a risk, and I think the stakes are very, very, very high.”
This article was originally published on CalMatters and was republished under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives license.
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