For nearly four decades, one of America’s most reliable Democratic strongholds has resisted every Republican attempt to reclaim its highest office, making the state’s political landscape seem almost impossible to change.
Now, a new poll suggests that historic streak may finally be in jeopardy, raising the possibility of one of the biggest political upsets of the 2026 election cycle and putting both parties on high alert months before voters head to the polls.
A new campaign-commissioned poll shows Republican Christine Drazan leading incumbent Democratic Gov. Tina Kotek in Oregon’s gubernatorial race, raising the possibility that the state could elect its first Republican governor in 39 years.
According to the survey, 48% of likely voters said they would definitely or probably support Drazan if the election were held today, while 44% backed Kotek.
The poll was conducted by Public Opinion Strategies, a Republican-aligned polling firm, which surveyed 600 registered Oregon voters by telephone between June 22 and June 24.
The results were first shared by Drazan’s campaign with lobbyists and potential donors before being obtained by The Oregonian/OregonLive.
The four-point advantage falls within the survey’s stated margin of error of plus or minus four percentage points.
In addition, Drazan’s campaign has not released the complete questionnaire or detailed cross-tabulations, making it difficult to independently evaluate the findings.
Still, the poll is notable because Oregon has not elected a Republican governor since 1986.
Drazan narrowly lost to Kotek in the 2022 election, receiving 43.5% of the vote compared with Kotek’s 47%.
Republicans hope dissatisfaction with Oregon’s economy, housing affordability, homelessness and public education will help Drazan overcome the state’s long Democratic winning streak.
“If you’re Tina Kotek, this should be a wake-up call,” Drazan campaign strategist Trey Rosser said in a statement.
“People are frustrated by the rising cost of living, the lack of affordable housing, worsening homelessness and a governor who keeps making life more expensive instead of fixing problems.”
2026 Oregon Governor Race
🔴 Christine Drazan 48%
🔵 Tina Kotek (inc): 44%Public Opinion Strategies (🔴) | 6/24 pic.twitter.com/AkxWWETQtk
— OSZ (@OpenSourceZone) July 9, 2026
🚨THIS IS NOT A JOKE: Republican Christine Drazan leads incumbent Governor Tina Kotek in “solid blue” Oregon.
Oregon – 2026 Governor
🟥Christine Drazan 48% (+4)
🟦Tina Kotek* 44%Kotek defeated Drazan by merely 3% in 2022 and polling shows this 2026 rematch will be just as… pic.twitter.com/7kvNpUhwmx
— Election Time (@ElectionTime_) July 9, 2026
Oregonians don’t stop when things get hard. With your help we can restore opportunity for families across our state.
Join our movement and let’s get to work: https://t.co/rEj4tqhS4z pic.twitter.com/VBzHLfxKHS
— Christine Drazan (@ChristineDrazan) November 3, 2025
Democrats, meanwhile, argue that voters will ultimately reject Drazan once the campaign intensifies.
“Christine Drazan is desperate to show that she has a shot, but the reality is she is out of step with Oregon values,” Kotek campaign spokesperson Federico Araujo said in a statement.
“As Oregon voters learn more about how Drazan has sided with Trump’s dangerous and unpopular agenda, they’re going to remember exactly why they rejected her four years ago.”
The poll also found Kotek continuing to struggle with her job approval rating.
According to the survey memo, just 38% of respondents approved of her performance as governor, while nearly three-fifths of those surveyed said Oregon is on the wrong track.
The race is expected to become significantly more competitive in the coming months as both campaigns increase advertising and fundraising efforts.
During the 2022 campaign, Kotek raised approximately $30.1 million compared with Drazan’s $22.6 million in what became the most expensive gubernatorial race in Oregon history, Oregon Live reported.
With several months remaining before voters cast their ballots, both parties are expected to invest heavily in a contest that could determine whether Democrats extend their nearly four-decade hold on Oregon’s governor’s office or Republicans pull off one of the year’s biggest statewide political upsets.
This article may contain commentary which reflects the author’s opinion.
