An artificial intelligence model has produced a hypothetical prediction regarding the 2028 U.S. presidential election.
The simulation encompassed state-by-state forecasts, an electoral map, and anticipated vote totals for selected candidates from both principal parties.
A viral YouTube video from the popular Election Time channel has ignited fresh debate over the 2028 presidential race after its host asked ChatGPT to forecast election night results in detail — and the artificial intelligence delivered a stunning Republican victory.
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In the video, the host walks viewers through a complete Electoral College map filled in by poll-closing order, based entirely on ChatGPT’s projections for a matchup between Vice President JD Vance and California Gov. Gavin Newsom.
“I told ChatGPT to show me what will happen on election night in 2028 and its answer was jaw-dropping,” the host opens.
“In this video, I will tell you what AI says the 2028 results will be and we will fill in this electoral map in poll closing order so you can see exactly how states will be called on election night,” the host added.
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ChatGPT selected the nominees first.
On the Democratic side, the model tapped Newsom despite early polling that had him trailing former Vice President Kamala Harris by 15 points.
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“According to the market odds on Kalshi though, Newsom is the outright favorite with a 19% chance of winning his party’s primary ahead of a surging AOC and Jon Ossoff,” the host explains.
For Republicans, the choice was straightforward.
“On the Republican side, AI chose JD Vance. He’s the clear leader in the polls and according to Kalshi, the vice president has a 41% chance of being the next GOP nominee. And so our matchup is now set. We will see what ChatGPT thinks about a race between JD Vance and Gavin Newsom,” the host said.
The simulation then unfolds hour by hour.
At 7 p.m. Eastern, polls close in Georgia, Indiana, Kentucky, South Carolina, Vermont, and Virginia.
Indiana and Kentucky go solidly to Vance. South Carolina is called likely Republican with a projected 14-point margin.
Georgia leans to the vice president by 4 percent—“doubling President Trump’s margin from 2024”—while Virginia stays lean Democratic for Newsom by just 3 percent.
After the first wave, Vance leads 44 electoral votes to Newsom’s 16.
At 7:30 p.m., West Virginia is solid red (Vance by more than 40 points).
Ohio is likely Republican by 14 points—“barely… 1% away from being safe”—and North Carolina leans Republican by 4.8 percent.
Vance’s total climbs to 81 electoral votes.
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The massive 8 p.m. wave, covering 171 electoral votes across 16 states plus D.C., produces the first major flip.
New Hampshire goes tilt Republican for Vance by a razor-thin 0.9 percent—the first GOP win there since George W. Bush in 2000.
Maine’s second congressional district also leans to Vance, though Newsom still carries the state overall by 3-4 points (lean Democratic).
Florida is locked in as likely Republican by 12 points. Pennsylvania leans Republican.
Safe Republican states including Oklahoma, Missouri, Tennessee, Mississippi, and Alabama fall easily, while Newsom holds Massachusetts, Rhode Island, Maryland, D.C., Connecticut (likely by 14 percent), Delaware (likely by 12 percent), Illinois (likely), and New Jersey (lean by 3.4 percent—the closest since 1992).
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By the end of the hour, Vance has 178 electoral votes and is “less than 100 away from 270.”
The 9 p.m. closings deliver the second historic flip.
Minnesota goes lean Republican for Vance by 1.2 percent—“the first Republican to win the state since Richard Nixon in 1972, 54 years ago.”
Wisconsin and Michigan both lean Republican by 2-4 points each.
Arizona leans Republican by 4 percent. Nevada later locks in as lean Republican by 3-4 points.
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Texas is likely Republican, Iowa likely Republican by 12 points, while Newsom holds New York (likely by 12.4 percent), Colorado (likely by 8 points), and New Mexico (lean by 4.9 percent).
Later hours confirm the map: California, Washington, Oregon, and Hawaii go to Newsom (California by roughly 30 points), while Alaska finishes likely Republican for Vance by 13 percent.
“And so this is ChatGPT’s 2028 election prediction,” the host concludes.
“It has Vice President JD Vance defeating California Governor Gavin Newsom, flipping Minnesota and New Hampshire, winning 326 electoral votes. Newsom taking just 212. This would make Newsom’s performance the worst for any Democrat since Michael Dukakis in 1988,” the host said.
This article may contain commentary which reflects the author’s opinion.
