Authored by Andrew Korybko via Substack,While Russia officially has no problem with the Islamic NATO and even hopes that it’ll one day include Iran to fulfill Russia’s regional collective security vision, it would be inaccurate to claim that Russia is naïve about the latent threat that this bloc could pose as a result of Turkiye’s rivalry with Russia.Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov opined in early September on his country’s position towards the Islamic NATO in response to a question about the role that Russia could play in restoring stability to West Asia. He began by referencing Russia’s over-two-decade-old collective security vision for the Gulf, which he also brought up earlier this spring during the Third Gulf War, since it’s an enduring part of its regional policy. Lavrov then said that the latest conflict imbued this concept with a fresh sense of urgency.It was in this context that he mentioned the Mecca Joint Defense Agreement and added that “Saudi Arabia, Pakistan and Türkiye, which formulated that concept of collective security and a defence alliance, have pointed out that it is also open to other countries.” He then declared that “At some stage, provided this structure also coordinates conditions on which Iran could be involved in this process, it could become the best concrete step in the direction of the concept we formulated.”Seeing as how Lavrov earlier said that “Russia’s role in any part of the world…has always been in supporting what the concerned countries are ready to coordinate”, it can be assessed that his country’s position towards the Islamic NATO is officially positive. This is especially so as regards the possibility of Iran joining the bloc, though observers should remember that its three founding states are all tied to NATO, with Turkiye being a member while Pakistan and Saudi Arabia are “Major Non-NATO Allies”.For that reason, it was recently argued that “The Islamic NATO Could Indeed Pose A Challenge To Russia” in response to Valdai Club Programme Director Timofey Bordachev article about “Why the Mecca alliance may work in Russia’s favor”. In particular, Turkiye is poised to lead the expansion of NATO influence into Central Asia through August 2025’s “Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity”, Pakistan already helps terrorists and arms enter Afghanistan, and Saudi Arabia might bankroll all of this.Even if one argues that stability in Afghanistan isn’t integral to Russia’s security and Saudi Arabia doesn’t bankroll anything anti-Russian, it’s veritably the case that “Turkiye Geostrategically Challenges Russia Independently Of NATO”. Russian expert Farhad Ibragimov, who earlier argued that Turkiye doesn’t do the US’ bidding against Russia, commendably adjusted his assessment in light of its US-approved large-scale arms deal with Ukraine that surprised Lavrov’s spokeswoman. Lavrov is therefore aware of this.To be sure, he might not share the same threat assessment of the Islamic NATO’s members that was described above, but he at minimum knows that Turkiye continues to geostrategically challenge Russia despite also pragmatically cooperating with it on certain issues. It’s not only a member of the Islamic NATO, but also the one geographically closest to Russia and already in a position to challenge it even more in Central Asia, which might arguably influence his and his ministry’s private views about the bloc.With that in mind, while Russia officially has no problem with the Islamic NATO and even hopes that it’ll one day include Iran to fulfill Russia’s regional collective security vision, it would be inaccurate to claim that Russia is naïve about the latent threat that this bloc could pose as a result of Turkiye’s rivalry with Russia. Be that as it may, Russian officials are expected to remain diplomatic by not openly talking about this, but Russian experts, media, and their country’s foreign supporters might be more critical.
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