The number of murders in the US is on track for its largest one-year drop on record, according to an analysis by noted crime stats expert, Jeff Asher.
Using the Real-Time Crime Index that compares data from 570 law enforcement agencies, Asher reports a nearly 20% decline in murders in 2025 vs. the same period in 2024. The database excludes manslaughter, self-defense, negligence, or “accidental killings.”
As Asher notes on his Substack,
The drop in crime in 2025 continues a trend that began in 2023, accelerated in 2024, and likely became historic in 2025. A roughly 20 percent drop in murder in 2025, as is suggested by the current data, would be by far the largest decline ever recorded, eclipsing the decline in 2024 — currently pegged at -15 percent by the FBI but that’s subject to a likely upward revision next year.
Other types of crime are seeing large reported declines as well. These drops range from a nearly 23 percent decline in motor vehicle thefts in the RTCI to a smaller 9 and 8 percent drop in theft and aggravated assault respectively according to the RTCI. These numbers won’t be finalized for a while, but they paint the picture of large drops in crime even if the current numbers potentially overstate that drop by a small bit.
Other major crime categories tracked by the index were also down, including motor vehicle thefts (23.2%), aggravated assaults (7.5%) and robbery (18.3%).
When analyzed by major city using data from City Data, Birmingham, Albuquerque, Columbus, Baltimore and Chicago led the decline, while Milwaukee, Kansas City, and Los Angeles actually saw increases YTD.
Read the entire report here.
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