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A brand new Real Polling in Real Time with Zogby found that Democrats and Republicans are essentially tied months before November’s crucial midterm elections, possibly spelling bad news for the Democratic Party.
The Zogby Strategies survey on the 2026 Generic Congressional Ballot found that Democrats are at 46.3 percent and Republicans are at 45.8 percent.
The significance of the poll shows a sharp drop from the pollster’s previous (February) result, which found Democrats leading by +5 points. It’s essentially a statistical tie within the margin of error.
The poll has sparked discussion on X, formerly Twitter, with users noting it as potentially concerning for Democrats given Zogby’s history of leaning a bit more to the Left.
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The poll found:
–Democrats hold decisive double-digit advantages on healthcare (+14), health and wellness (+12), and trust in government amid the Epstein files (+11), and also lead on working-class needs (+8), affordability (+7), middle-class needs (+6), and minimizing AI job loss.
–Republicans lead on crime (+10), immigration (+7), international strength (+3), and keeping the American dream alive (+3).
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The redistricting fight is now going terribly for Democrats.
On Friday, the Virginia Supreme Court struck down a Democrat-inspired gerrymandered congressional map that would have given the party 4 of the 5seats currently held by Republicans in a state that is about as evenly divided as any in the country.
The court said that the Democratic majority in the state legislature earlier this year decided to put a new, politically gerrymandered map to a vote of the people.
The amendment narrowly passed with barely 50 percent of the vote for and about 47.8 percent against.
In a worst-case scenario for Democrats, as many as 12 seats might suddenly flip to Republicans, but it is all still very fluid.
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The U.S. Supreme Court’s decision to eviscerate Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act and another late round of GOP redistricting have substantially changed the fortunes of Democrats.
Florida Republicans, for starters, pushed through an aggressive gerrymander that might oust four Democrats from the delegation. Even many Republicans were stunned by GOP Gov. Ron DeSantis’s plan.
Then Virginia’s Supreme Court indicated it was contemplating overturning the Democrats’ hard-won referendum triumph. Nobody knows what will happen there.
Plus, a Supreme Court decision in Louisiana v. Callais has opened up several seats across the South, notably in Louisiana, Alabama, South Carolina, and Tennessee.
Louisiana Republicans are poised to drag at least one of the two Democrats out of the Bayou State’s House.
Alabama GOP officials are asking the Supreme Court to remove an injunction that requires the state to hold onto its congressional map until 2030. Republicans might also target Democratic Rep. Terri Sewell, whose district is headquartered in Birmingham, in theory.
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South Carolina is considering a new map that would erase the deeply blue seat of Democratic Icon Jim Clyburn.
Republican Mississippi Gov. Tate Reeves told the Daily Caller he is considering running to eliminate the seat of Democratic Rep. Bennie Thompson in the western section of the state. Mississippi already had its primary; thus, this is probably a 2028 move.
None of these GOP-drawn maps is final yet.
Florida’s map faces various lawsuits. But even if the map holds, Jeffries and Democratic leaders hope they can flip a few light red seats from the GOP. South Carolina Republicans are no sure bet to get their map through.
Punchbowl News reported: “On April 22, House Democrats were riding high. They’d just won a huge gamble in Virginia, spending tens of millions of dollars on a redistricting referendum aimed at netting them up to four new seats. President Donald Trump — who set off the unprecedented national redistricting fight in Texas last year — was tanking in the polls, dragging down Republicans everywhere.”
“Overall, it looked like Democrats had held Republicans to a draw in the redistricting wars and were on their way to the House majority. But the last two weeks have suddenly turned rough for House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries and the Democratic Caucus. They’re facing legal setbacks on redistricting across multiple fronts, developments that have reshaped the battle for the House. As many as 10 seats could now swing toward Republicans in a worst-case scenario for Democrats, although this all remains very fluid,” the outlet added.
