No barrels moved. No tankers shifted course. Yet oil surged 8% and gave it all back within hours.
Tehran threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz. Crude jumped. President Trump announced negotiations were resuming. Prices fell back. The strait has been operating at minimal traffic for months. Almost no additional supply was ever at risk.
The oil market no longer prices physical barrels. It now prices the probability of a diplomatic breakthrough. Oil has become a derivative of negotiation. Hope is now the traded commodity.
Beneath the surface, calm is engineered. The U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve sits near 365 million barrels—down roughly 50 million from pre-conflict levels—and is draining at record pace into hurricane season. The fragile balance holds only while reserves last and waters remain quiet.
The barrels themselves stopped deciding volume a long time ago.
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