With Acting DNI Bill Pulte coming into office, several people have requested my simple guide to identifying media leaks.
This reference resource is based on historic patterns and generally has an 80/20 accuracy rate. While there are some leaks that cross through the data pattern, in the aggregate this basic outline has shown to be correct.
The leak source identification can help interested political observers understand the motives and objectives.
When you see the term “exclusive” in the originating media report, this guide increases in accuracy:
- The State Department leaks to CNN
- The CIA leaks to The Washington Post
- The DOJ/FBI leaks to The New York Times and Politico
- DHS domestically leaks to the Wall Street Journal
- The National Security Council leaks primarily to Axios and Politico, NYT secondary
- The Pentagon leaks to Fox News and the Wall Street Journal (Axios more recent)
- Kash Patel leaks to John Solomon – Just The News
- ¹DNI leaks to the Wall Street Journal, however:
¹The ODNI gets a little complicated due to the structure of the ODNI. Each intelligence agency has a liaison office inside the Office of the Director of National Intelligence. Generally, the topline guide above overlays with the desk assignment.
Example 1: CNN gets an ‘exclusive’ leak related to the DNI; the leak sourcing is therefore most likely to be the State Dept Desk inside the DNI office. (State Dept leaks to CNN)
Example 2: Washington Post gets an ‘exclusive’ leak related to the DNI. The leak sourcing is directly from the CIA liaison desk inside DNI. (CIA leaks to WaPo)
This is the consistent pattern that established itself over the past 20 years. It is generally accurate on an 80/20 basis. Meaning 80% of the time the origin of the leak can be identified this way with accuracy; 20% of the time it is not.
Hope that helps.
