Republican Mike Rogers leads all three potential Democratic rivals in polling for Michigan’s open U.S. Senate seat, giving Republicans fresh optimism as they make their strongest push to flip the seat in decades. Backed by President Donald Trump’s endorsement and a major fundraising edge, Rogers has emerged as the GOP’s top contender in one of the country’s most competitive Senate races. But warning signs remain for Republicans, including weak support among undecided voters and recent Democratic momentum in the state.
Rogers leads in latest polls
A new Glengariff Group poll for the Detroit Regional Chamber shows Rogers narrowly ahead of Democratic hopefuls Abdul El-Sayed, Haley Stevens and Mallory McMorrow.
Rogers leads El-Sayed 44.7 percent to 39.8 percent. He also leads Stevens 43.8 percent to 41.5 percent and McMorrow 42.8 percent to 40.7 percent. The Stevens and McMorrow matchups fall within the poll’s 4-point margin of error.
Still, the survey included troubling signs for Republicans. The polling memo found that Rogers “has a bigger problem facing him in the form of undecided voters,” most of whom disapprove of Trump. Between 67 and 74 percent of undecided voters in the Senate race disapprove of Trump’s job performance.
Rogers spokeswoman Alyssa Brouillet dismissed those concerns, saying Rogers continues “to command the field with his campaign to Get Michigan Working Again.”
“After 32 years of Democrat failures in our state, Michiganders are making clear that if they want the outcomes to change, our representation has to. Mike Rogers will fix everything the Democrats broke — from restoring job opportunities, to getting kids reading again and making life more affordable,” she said.
The National Republican Senatorial Committee also projected confidence in Rogers’ chances. “Michigan Democrats can continue to duke it out over support for Israel, abolishing ICE and accepting corporate PAC money, but one thing remains clear: Mike Rogers will beat them all in November,” NRSC regional press secretary Samantha Cantrell said.
A second bid with major institutional backing
Rogers is making his second straight run for the Senate after narrowly losing to Democrat Elissa Slotkin in 2024 by just 0.3 percentage points.
A former FBI special agent and former chair of the House Intelligence Committee, Rogers said Trump’s endorsement strengthened his path to victory by helping unite Republicans and boost fundraising.
“I’m grateful to have President Trump’s complete and total endorsement. He knows that we have what it takes to win this seat and deliver real results for hard-working families. For 32 years, Michigan’s left-wing leaders have failed families and failed our state. It’s time for a voice in the Senate that represents real Michigan values,” Rogers said.
Trump endorsed Rogers shortly after GOP Rep. Bill Huizenga decided against entering the race following discussions with the president, effectively clearing the Republican field.
A historic financial war chest
Rogers has built the largest financial operation in the race so far. His campaign says it has launched a “historic” statewide ground operation supported by more than 100 campaign co-chairs.
Federal Election Commission filings show Rogers had more than $4.2 million cash on hand at the end of March. El-Sayed reported more than $2.5 million, while McMorrow and Stevens reported $3.6 million and $3.3 million, respectively.
The Senate Leadership Fund, the leading GOP Senate super PAC, announced a $45 million investment in Michigan, its largest state-level investment among top pickup opportunities.
“Senate Leadership Fund’s historic investment is a testament to the strength of Mike Rogers and our commitment to flip Michigan red in November,” SLF Executive Director Alex Latcham said.
Democrats argued the spending reflects Republican concerns about Rogers’ weaknesses. “Without Trump on the ballot, Rogers needs every dollar he can get. The GOP knows they’ve got a weak candidate who’s already burned millions of their dollars last cycle. But none of that changes the math: Rogers is shackled to an out-of-touch agenda that’s deeply unpopular with the voters they’re trying to win,” Senate Majority PAC press secretary Christyna Thompson said.
What this race means for Senate control
Michigan is quickly becoming Republicans’ top Senate pickup opportunity in 2026, especially as the GOP still lacks a defined challenger against Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff in Georgia.
For Democrats, holding Michigan is critical to any realistic chance of retaking Senate control. Republicans currently hold a 53-47 majority, meaning Democrats would likely need four net pickups to reclaim the chamber.
Senate Majority Leader John Thune quickly endorsed Rogers after he entered the race, saying recruiting “quality candidates” is central to the GOP’s strategy for winning competitive seats.
Political analyst Sarbaugh-Thompson told Newsweek that McMorrow could emerge as the “safer choice” for Democrats in the general election. But with the primary still months away and many Democratic voters undecided, the outcome remains far from settled.
