The Trump administration and the Republican-controlled Congress continue to deliver more to working-class Americans and retirees.
Under President Donald Trump’s economic and tax policies, American workers are earning an average of $3,000-$4,000 more than in the final year of former President Joe Biden’s term, according to economic adviser Kevin Haslett in an interview with CNN on Sunday.
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And now, seniors 65 years old and older are set to earn more, too.
The increase would come through Social Security’s annual cost-of-living adjustment, better known as the COLA, which is designed to help benefits keep pace with inflation.
While the Social Security Administration will not announce the official adjustment until October, several organizations that closely track inflation are forecasting a larger increase than beneficiaries received this year.
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The Senior Citizens League, a nonpartisan advocacy group for older Americans, currently estimates the 2027 COLA will come in around 3.8%.
If that forecast proves accurate, retirees receiving the average monthly benefit of about $2,026 would see their payments rise by roughly $77 per month.
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That would bring the average monthly retirement check to just over $2,100 starting in January.
Other analysts have reached similar conclusions. AARP recently projected a 3.6% increase, while independent Social Security expert Mary Johnson has estimated a 3.7% adjustment.
Although the forecasts vary slightly, they all point to a larger increase than the 2.8% COLA beneficiaries received for 2026.
The annual Social Security cost-of-living adjustment is based on inflation during the third quarter of the calendar year.
The Social Security Administration calculates the adjustment using the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W), comparing inflation data from July, August, and September with the same period a year earlier. The official COLA is announced each October.
Because inflation data for August and September has not yet been released, the final 2027 adjustment remains uncertain.
Inflation has remained relatively elevated through much of 2026, contributing to current projections for a larger COLA.
However, changes in consumer prices over the remaining months could still affect the final percentage.
For many retirees, a higher COLA would provide additional income to help offset rising costs.
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Increases in expenses for housing, groceries, utilities, and healthcare have continued to put pressure on household budgets, making annual benefit adjustments an important source of financial relief for millions of Social Security recipients.
Advocates note that a larger cost-of-living adjustment does not necessarily translate into greater purchasing power for retirees.
Because the COLA is designed to offset inflation, a higher adjustment often reflects the fact that everyday expenses have also increased.
As a result, many beneficiaries find that much of the additional income is absorbed by higher costs for essentials rather than providing additional discretionary spending.
The projections have also renewed debate over the formula used to calculate Social Security’s annual adjustment.
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Some advocacy organizations argue that the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W) does not accurately reflect the spending patterns of retirees because it is based on working-age households.
They instead support using the Consumer Price Index for the Elderly (CPI-E), which gives greater weight to expenses such as healthcare and housing that typically account for a larger share of older Americans’ budgets.
The Social Security Administration is expected to announce the official 2027 cost-of-living adjustment in October after all third-quarter inflation data has been released.
Any approved increase would take effect with benefit payments issued beginning in January 2027.
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For now, the projected increase of about $77 per month remains an estimate.
Final figures will depend on inflation data from the remaining months of the calculation period, though current projections suggest beneficiaries could receive a larger COLA in 2027 than they did for 2026.
Meanwhile, oil prices have begun to fall again as the Trump administration gets closer to a final negotiated agreement to end hostilities with Iran, which will also help retirees with lower energy costs.
This article may contain commentary which reflects the author’s opinion.
