Survey Says is a weekly series rounding up the most important polling trends or data points you need to know about, plus a vibe check on a trend that’s driving politics or culture.
Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is rapidly dismantling the nation’s vaccine infrastructure, gutting key safety committees and doing his damnedest to weaken the childhood vaccine schedule. He is doing this amid the nation’s worst measles outbreak since the highly contagious disease was declared eliminated—and he’s doing it ahead of a midterm election. It’s a sword that may just cut both ways.
Fifty-seven percent of Americans disapprove of Kennedy’s handling of the nation’s vaccine policy, according to a recent KFF poll. That includes 69% of independents, a critical voting bloc in this year’s midterms.
But it’s one thing to oppose Kennedy’s destructive ideology, and it’s another to experience the pain it has caused.
Daily Kos has identified 12 competitive House districts that meaningfully overlap with counties where at least five measles cases have been reported during the 2025-26 wave of infections. Five of those districts, including four held by Republicans, have seen a dozen or more cases. (States that have not reported county-level measles data are excluded, as are states that have redistricted since 2024, due to the lack of sufficient data about which counties overlap with which districts.)
One of them is New York’s 17th District. Represented by Republican Mike Lawler, the district sits just north of New York City and includes all of Rockland County, the site of the state’s worst measles outbreak. At least 25 county residents have been infected so far, according to data collected by Johns Hopkins University as of Friday. Altogether, the district has seen 26 cases.
Rockland is something of a swing county. In 2016 and 2020, it backed Democrats at the presidential level, but in 2024, it went for President Donald Trump. That same year, Lawler won reelection by about 6 percentage points, or fewer than 24,000 votes.
As such, The Cook Political Report rates the district as a “toss-up,” making it one of Democrats’ best pickup opportunities this year. It also helps their chances that Lawler has numerous scandals, such as having worn blackface. He was also recently found to have paid an activist who complained about Democrats benefitting from a “Jewish organized spending spree.”
How much a nearby measles outbreak will weigh on voters’ minds this November remains to be seen. And case numbers closer to the election will likely have more of an impact.
Nevertheless, the 2025-26 measles outbreak plays into a major problem that Americans have with the Trump administration: Kennedy’s stewardship of the national health apparatus.
Before leading the Department of Health and Human Services, Kennedy was primarily known for promoting medical misinformation and anti-vaccine lies, including falsely linking autism to the measles, mumps, and rubella vaccine. That malpractice has continued in his new post, where he has sought to undermine the childhood vaccination schedule, though a federal judge temporarily halted that effort this past Monday.
Given Kennedy’s ignominious record, it’s little surprise that only 38% of Americans are confident Kennedy is providing trustworthy health information, according to a new Annenberg Public Policy Center survey. That widespread distrust has tarnished the nation’s view of its premier health agencies, too. Only 59% are confident that the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is providing trustworthy information about vaccines. And if the CDC and American Medical Association disagree on vaccine advice, twice as many Americans are likely to trust the AMA over the CDC.
The erosion of the nation’s public health apparatus no doubt feeds into voters’ broader concerns about the direction of the country. Nearly 3 in 5 say the nation is on the wrong track, according to YouGov data. And a plurality of Americans (40%) believe that infectious diseases are worse now than they were 50 years ago, per another YouGov survey.
Altogether, it’s possible that seeing an outbreak of a once-eliminated disease hit home could push people to vote for change—or merely persuade Republicans to stay home. Democrats need to pick up only three seats on net to retake the House.
Another measles-troubled district is Montana’s 1st, which has seen 25 cases in the 2025-26 wave. While Cook rates the district as “likely” to stay in Republican hands, its incumbent, Ryan Zinke, is retiring. He also won reelection in 2024 by fewer than 25,000 votes. Combine those factors with the district’s measles outbreak, and it’s possible Cook is underrating Democrats’ chances here.
The outbreaks also offer up a clear line of attack against the Trump administration for Democrats trying to hold on to competitive seats.
Democrat Gabe Vasquez represents New Mexico’s 2nd District, which Cook rates as “Lean Democratic.” His district meaningfully overlaps with five counties that have seen a combined 99 measles cases, according to Johns Hopkins. And Vasquez appears aware of how front-of-mind the outbreak is for his voters, highlighting it in multiple statements, including one about Trump’s tax bill last summer.
Especially large measles outbreaks could sway votes in nearby districts as well.
For instance, Arizona’s Mohave County has seen an enormous outbreak, totaling 263 cases so far. Only a negligible amount of the county overlaps with Arizona’s 2nd District, but an outbreak of that magnitude may have an outsized effect in the area. Indeed, counties that make up a meaningful portion of the 2nd District have seen eight cases.
Currently, Cook rates Arizona’s 2nd District as “Likely Republican,” and incumbent GOP Rep. Eli Crane won reelection by a somewhat comfortable 9 points in 2024. However, he underperformed Trump by 6 points that year. His weakness as a candidate may stem from his membership in the far-right Freedom Caucus and the fact that, as of 2024, he reportedly did not live in his district. And it’s hard to see how a major measles outbreak in his neck of the woods helps him, given his general praise for Kennedy.
In November, the United Nations’ Pan American Health Organization will review whether the U.S. still qualifies as a country that has eliminated measles. We are expected to lose that status. If that happens, it will mean that global experts now see the disease’s spread in the U.S. as continuous—no longer an aberration but a new and persistent problem.
Coincidentally, that’s the same month voters in the U.S. will decide which party controls Congress.
Any updates?
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Nancy Mace, queen of the airport meltdown and the House GOP’s No. 1 anti-trans bigot, may not disappear from our lives after all. Though she had lagged in early polling of South Carolina’s Republican gubernatorial primary, that’s no longer the case. Two new polls from Republican firms show her in a statistical tie for first place—with different candidates. A poll from co/efficient shows Mace with 22% support, followed closely by Lt. Gov. Pamela Evette, at 21%. Meanwhile, a survey from Quantus Insights shows Mace tied at 22% with state Attorney General Alan Wilson. (Evette comes in third, with 16%.)
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Trump’s war in Iran is unpopular with the American public, and while his 2024 voters support the war right now, a new poll shows how that might soon change. Around 3 in 4 Trump voters back the war, according to the poll Ipsos conducted for the Quincy Institute and The American Conservative. However, 55% are worried about the war’s effect on gas prices, and only 41% support the idea of sending troops into Iran—something Trump is refusing to rule out. In other words, Trump voters’ support for the war is likely at its ceiling right now.
Vibe check
Americans have a variety of, let’s say, quirky beliefs about what it takes to be healthy. You know, like how you can probably skip that surgery your doctor told you to get.
Yes, only 46% of Americans say that getting recommended surgery is “essential” to being healthy, according to a recent poll from YouGov. Another 31% say it’s helpful but not essential. It’s possible that people are reading “recommended” as “optional,” though many surgeries that are ostensibly optional—like a prophylactic mastectomy due to a heightened risk for breast cancer—prove to be lifesaving.
Similarly, many health-improving habits that experts widely recommend—such as getting exercise, eating fruits and vegetables, and not smoking—are seen as essential by less than 80% of Americans.
Especially strange is that only 4 in 5 Americans say that drinking water regularly is essential to one’s health. Another 12% say it helps but is not essential. That said, it’s probably safe to assume that the 2% who said drinking water is “detrimental” to one’s health are merely trolling the poll.
Almost certainly not trolling, though, are the 8% who say getting vaccinated is detrimental to being a healthy person. Another 13% think that vaccines—which have saved at least 154 million lives in the past 50 years—don’t make a difference to one’s health. Just 45% see them as essential.
Turns out, “MAHAspital” was right on the money.
