Former New Hampshire Gov. Chris Sununu’s (R) decision not to run for Senate is presenting a challenge for Republicans as they turn their sights on the state ahead of 2026.
Sununu’s announcement was not necessarily surprising to Republicans. He notably passed on a Senate bid ahead of the 2022 midterms, opting to run for a fourth term as governor instead.
But New Hampshire Republicans say a Sununu Senate run, which was backed by President Trump, would have made the race next year a cakewalk. Hypothetical polls showed Sununu trouncing Democratic Senate candidate Rep. Chris Pappas (D-N.H.).
The decision leaves Republicans with the potentially tricky task of having to recruit a candidate who can win in a state that still has a blue lean.
“It’s going to mean that we’re actually going to have to work for it,” New Hampshire state House Majority Leader Jason Osborne (R) said. “I think he would have been a shoo-in.”
Sununu stoked speculation about a potential bid when Trump told reporters Sunday that he met with the former governor and said he hoped he would run for the seat.
“That was more of a surprise than him not running,” former New Hampshire GOP Chair Chris Ager said. “That was the aberration.”
And Sununu taking his name out of the running does not mean Republicans see an unfavorable environment in the state heading into next year.
“The NRSC continues to believe Republicans are going to win New Hampshire in 2026,” said Nick Puglia, regional press secretary at the National Republican Senatorial Committee.
“While Democrats duke it out in a race to the left, we are excited about the number of candidates we are talking to who appreciate the privilege of representing Granite Staters in the Senate and are ready to build winning campaigns,” he continued.
Following Sen. Jeanne Shaheen’s (D-N.H.) announcement that she would not seek reelection earlier this month, the NRSC released internal polling showing a favorable environment for Republicans in the Granite State.
According to the poll, Republicans hold a 1-point advantage on the state’s generic ballot. The poll also showed Republicans leading in voter enthusiasm, with 92 percent of registered Republicans indicating they would back the GOP candidate. Eighty-seven percent of Democrats expressed “similar commitment” to voting for the Democratic candidate.
Republicans point to their improved voter registration in the state. As of October, Republicans led Democrats in voter registration in the state by roughly 38,000. According to the NRSC polling memo, the GOP had a registration advantage of more than 48,000.
Additionally, Republicans also point to Trump’s improved performance in the state in November. Trump lost the state to former Vice President Kamala Harris by just under 3 points, a marked improvement from when he lost the state to former President Biden by just more than 7 points in 2020. Last year also saw New Hampshire Republicans perform well at the state level, including Gov. Kelly Ayotte (R).
“The Republicans who are elected in the state have a positive image. More Republicans are registering. It’s time to get some federal representation,” Ager said. “We’re getting things done for the state, and the Democrats in Washington are replaying the resist game that they did in 2016, which doesn’t seem to be gaining any traction.”
But Democrats argue the environment on the ground in New Hampshire has turned worse for Republicans as Democrats warn of potential Medicaid cuts in order to help pay for Trump’s legislative agenda, coupled with Sununu declining to run.
“Chris Sununu’s decision not to run for Senate is an embarrassing recruitment failure for Republicans as they face a building midterm backlash driven by their threats to Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid and their push to spike costs for families,” Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee communications director Maeve Coyle said in a statement.
And over the past week, Trump’s global tariffs have wreaked havoc on financial markets, sparking concern from some Republicans in Washington and New Hampshire.
“I’m guessing that doesn’t go well up here,” Osborne said. “Some of us are a little more vocal about it than others.”
The same internal polling released by the NRSC earlier this month before Trump’s tariffs went into effect showed 31 percent of New Hampshire independents identifying inflation, jobs and the cost of living “as the most important issue.”
Other Republicans note it’s too early to tell how tariffs will play out over in the year and a half between now and the midterms.
“We are 14 months away from the filing period,” Ager said. “In two or three days, the whole tariff situation could slip.”
With Sununu out of the running, attention has turned to former U.S. Ambassador to New Zealand Scott Brown, who has publicly expressed interest in running.
A senior adviser to Brown told The Hill that there is no timeline for him making an official decision, noting that a run will be a challenge in the blue state.
“All decisions will be made in due time, when he thinks he needs to get in to raise the amount of resources to mount a competitive campaign in what will be a potentially challenging political climate,” the adviser said.
“It’s one of the very few pickup opportunities in the Senate map, at the macro Senate level, in terms of opportunities to flip a blue seat red,” the adviser said.
The race will also depend on whom the Democratic candidate is. Pappas officially jumped into the race last week, while Rep. Maggie Goodlander (D-N.H.) has also expressed interest in running. If Goodlander were to jump in, that could set the stage for a contentious Democratic primary.
With Sununu out, it seems like a high-profile, competitive primary on the GOP side is off the table for now.
“I think a primary between Scott Brown and Chris Sununu would have been fun to watch,” Shaheen told The Hill on Tuesday.
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